Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Aug 29 2023 17:22:00 ACUS02 KWNS 291722 SWODY2 SPC AC 291721 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE IDALIA... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible in association with Hurricane Idalia Wednesday from the Florida Big bend across southeast Georgia and into the eastern Carolinas. ....FL...GA...Coastal Carolinas The center of Hurricane Idalia is forecast to be near the coastal FL Big Bend early Wednesday morning, with a gradually veering northeastward track forecast by NHC across southeast GA through evening. A plume of greater instability by way of higher dewpoints will lead to sufficient instability for a few embedded supercells with tornado threat generally east of the central track. A relative minimum in instability may exist for a time across southern GA, with a secondary instability plume developing off the Atlantic and affecting the coastal Carolinas Wednesday night. Although the greatest tornado threat will remain east of the actual center track, tornado probabilities currently extend slightly westward to account for uncertainty in center position. ....Northeast... A sharply amplified upper trough will move across NY and New England during the day, providing cooling aloft and aiding in weak destabilization. Low-level winds will quickly veer and likely reduce SRH. While deep-layer shear will be strong, the lack of instability is expected to preclude severe chances as rain with embedded thunder translates across the area relatively early. ....MT into ND... A shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will move across MT during the day, with a cold front moving from eastern MT into the western Dakotas through the afternoon. This westerly low-level flow regime behind the wind shift will result in relatively stable conditions, but steepening lapse rates could yield convective showers and weak thunderstorms across central and western MT during the day. Farther east, isolated cells may develop from late afternoon through the evening from eastern MT into ND, aided by a low-level jet. Elevated instability will generally be weak, but a few strong gusts or small hail cannot be ruled out. ...Jewell.. 08/29/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .