Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk SE
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Aug 27 2023 07:19:00

ACUS02 KWNS 270600
SWODY2
SPC AC 270558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds may occur with thunderstorms that develop
across parts of the Southeast on Monday.

....Southeast...
Upper troughing will persist Monday over much of the eastern CONUS
and Canada, while upper ridging remains centered from the Southwest
to the northern Rockies. At the surface, a weak front should be
nearly stationary while extending from parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic across the Carolinas and into the Southeast. A very
moist low-level airmass will likely be present to the south of this
front, with at least low to mid 70s surface dewpoints common. Even
with multiple days of prior convection, it still appears likely that
moderate to locally strong instability will once again develop south
of the front as robust diurnal heating occurs.

Most of the Southeast will remain displaced to the south of
appreciable mid-level flow associated with the upper trough,
although some modest southwesterlies should exist across parts of GA
into the Carolinas. While deep-layer shear is forecast to generally
be weak across much of the warm sector, a favorable environment for
gusty downdrafts should exist owing to the degree of MLCAPE
forecast, ample DCAPE, and a fairly well-mixed boundary layer.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by Monday
afternoon along the length of the front from LA to NC as convective
temperatures are breached. Some of this activity should be capable
of producing isolated strong/gusty winds around 45-60 mph and
occasional tree damage. Have made some modifications to the
corresponding Marginal Risk based on consensus of where latest
guidance shows the greatest concentration of thunderstorms
occurring.

....Southern/Central High Plains...
Aided by orographic lift, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should
develop Monday afternoon across parts of the southern/central
Rockies. Mainly north-northwesterly mid-level flow should allow this
convection to slowly move off the higher terrain and into the
adjacent southern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture across
this area should remain fairly limited behind a cold front, and
deep-layer shear appears modest at best. While isolated gusty
outflow winds may occur with the strongest cores, the overall severe
threat currently appears too limited to add wind probabilities.

...Gleason.. 08/27/2023

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