Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk SE
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 07:35:00

ACUS02 KWNS 260558
SWODY2
SPC AC 260556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur Sunday across parts of
the Southeast.

....Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the western states should retrograde slowly
westward Sunday, while an upper trough is forecast to persist over
eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. A weak surface front should
extend from parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast
and lower MS Valley. This boundary should move only slowly southward
across the Southeast through the period.

....Southeast...
A very moist airmass should be in place across the Southeast along
and south of the weak front. Daytime heating of this airmass will
likely aid the development of moderate to locally strong instability
by Sunday afternoon. Steepened low-level lapse rates should also be
present. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain generally anemic,
with the only appreciable but still weak mid-level flow present over
the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. Most guidance shows convection
developing through the afternoon along/south of the front. Much of
this activity will probably remain mostly disorganized. Still, some
clustering and loose convective organization appears possible as
thunderstorms spread slowly east-southeastward through early Sunday
evening.

Given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment and well-mixed
boundary layer forecast, occasional strong to damaging downdraft
winds around 50-60 mph may occur with the more robust cores. The
Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of the Southeast
where high-resolution guidance shows at least scattered thunderstorm
coverage should occur. A convectively augmented MCV may also be
present near western/middle TN at the start of the period Sunday
morning. Some guidance suggests this MCV will encourage strong
thunderstorm development across middle into eastern TN Sunday
afternoon.

...Gleason.. 08/26/2023

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