Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Aug 22 2023 15:36:00 ACUS02 KWNS 221725 SWODY2 SPC AC 221723 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHERN MN...AND ALSO FOR LOWER MI...NORTHERN OH...WESTERN PA/NY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday across Lower Michigan into the Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario vicinity, and also from northeast North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ....Lower Great Lakes region... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across the lower Great Lakes region. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of lower MI, aided by a moderate low-level jet and associated warm advection to the east of a north-south oriented baroclinic zone. Moderate MUCAPE may support an isolated hail threat before storms weaken by late morning. The baroclinic zone will move eastward as a warm front Wednesday afternoon, though its progress will be modulated by how quickly morning convection abates across lower MI. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level environment will support strong destabilization along/west of the warm front by late afternoon. Surface-based storm development cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon into the early evening across the warm sector as MLCINH diminishes. Sufficient deep-layer shear would support a conditional supercell risk with all severe hazards if surface-based development occurs, but this remains a low-probability scenario with large-scale ascent expected to generally weaken through the day as low-level warm advection shifts eastward. Another round of elevated convection associated with nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Initial development will tend to occur over southern Ontario, perhaps extending into eastern lower MI, with storms potentially evolving into a loosely organized MCS and spreading into parts of northern OH and western PA/NY with time. Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg or greater) will support some hail potential with stronger embedded cells, while isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible if more organized upscale growth occurs by early Thursday morning. ....Northern ND/MN... A weakening midlevel shortwave trough (the remnant of a trough that persisted for several days over the West) will move across parts of the northern Plains on Wednesday, around the periphery of the upper ridge. While richer low-level moisture will likely stay south of the region, some modest moistening and destabilization will be possible through the day into eastern ND and northern MN. While MLCINH will likely prohibit diurnal surface-based storm development, ascent attendant to the shortwave and continued moistening in the 850-700 mb layer may result in slightly elevated storm development during the evening. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for an elevated supercell or two, with an attendant threat of isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ...Dean.. 08/22/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .