Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Aug 15 2023 07:34:00

ACUS01 KWNS 150547
SWODY1
SPC AC 150546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and
evening from southern New England into the Southeast, and over the
lower Great Lakes vicinity.  Highest severe-thunderstorm coverage is
expected from the southern Delmarva vicinity into North Carolina.

....Southern New England to the Southeast...
A cold front -- trailing from a low progged to lie across the
northern New Jersey vicinity -- will shift gradually eastward across
the East Coast states, and southeastward across the Southeast,
through the afternoon and evening hours.  Daytime heating of the
moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in ample
destabilization to support isolated to scattered storm development
by early afternoon.  With a belt of enhanced low- to mid-level
southwesterlies, locally organized storms are expected to evolve,
some capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or strong wind
gusts near severe levels.  Greatest risk appears likely to evolve
during the late afternoon hours, from southern New Jersey to North
Carolina, where the most favorable CAPE/shear overlap should reside.
Afterward, storms should begin to diminish into the evening with the
onset of diurnal cooling, with any remnant convection then moving
offshore overnight.

....Lower Great Lakes region...
As an upper trough advances eastward across the Ohio Valley toward
the Lower Great Lakes region, daytime heating beneath cooling
mid-level temperatures will support modest destabilization.

Though surface reflection of the upper system will remain weak,
ascent should be sufficient to support scattered, low-topped showers
and thunderstorms from northeastern Ohio across the Lower Great
Lakes/Finger Lakes region and into adjacent portions of
Pennsylvania.  While limited shear should temper severe potential, a
few stronger storms may become briefly severe, with marginal hail
and gusty winds capable of producing tree damage the primary risks.

...Goss/Lyons.. 08/15/2023

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