Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Predict
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 08:13:00

AWUS01 KWNH 100949
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-101547-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0900
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
549 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...Mid-South through Northern Mississippi/Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100947Z - 101547Z

Summary...Rounds of organized convection continue to shift
east-southeast from northern Arkansas through northern Alabama
through mid-morning. High moisture content and sufficient
instability continue to allow keep heavy rates. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...An impulse over northern AR has lead to backing of
mean layer flow to just north of west which is aligned with
redeveloping activity northeast AR into the Memphis metro.
Additionally two lines of organized convection are moving
orthogonal to the mean flow over northern MS and AL. High moisture
with PWs of 2.1" to 2.3" will be maintained in 30kt WSWly low
level flow and instability will hold around a sufficient 1000-2000
J/kg MUCAPE.

Recent hourly rainfall estimates have been generally 1-2" in
northeast AR though they have weakened as they reach Memphis,
probably due to less instability there. The progressive lines have
generally produced 1 to 1.5" hourly rainfall. Given the strong low
level flow maintaining moisture/instability, there is a risk for
2-4" over the discussion area through 15Z.

FFG thresholds are lower, around 1.5"/hr around Memphis and in
northern AL where wetter soils are present. Flash flooding should
remain localized and is considered possible.


Jackson

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35719157 35719056 35418958 35028801 35058610 
            34278542 33608528 33258555 33028635 33318790 
            34008959 34749027 

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