Subj : MESO: TV Severe Potential To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 09:52:00 ACUS11 KWNS 071433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071433 NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-071630- Mesoscale Discussion 1878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071433Z - 071630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds will increase over the next few hours. Tornadoes are also possible, particularly for more discrete storms across Tennessee. A watch is likely with timing probable by late morning. DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing from Arkansas into western Tennessee. Given the speed and radar character of this suggests this activity is currently elevated in nature, especially farther west. However, modifying the 12Z observed OHX sounding for current surface conditions suggests that MLCIN is eroding rather quickly and strong/severe surface gusts may become more common in the next couple of hours. Wind profiles are strong for this time of year and 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is already present into the Tennessee Valley. Furthermore, low-level shear is certainly sufficient for low-level rotation. Aside from a threat for severe/damaging wind gusts, there is also potential for tornadoes. The main question will be storm mode. Forcing for ascent may be enough to drive a more linear mode than discrete. Convection in western Tennessee is showing some stronger velocities on KNQA imagery. A watch is likely, but the exact timing of the increase in storm intensity is uncertain. Observations and guidance would suggest this could occur by late morning. ...Wendt/Guyer.. 08/07/2023 ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34008873 34208997 34808999 35498947 35678869 35798717 35768550 35518439 35168397 34338447 34148475 33788561 33948733 34048810 34008873 = = = --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .