Subj : MESO: Severe Potential/To
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 09:51:00

ACUS11 KWNS 071420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071419 
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-071545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio
and western West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 071419Z - 071545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the OH
Valley into the central Appalachians. Several instances of damaging
winds are expected along with a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch will
be likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...The boundary layer is destabilizing across portions of
the TN/OH Valleys into the central Appalachians, with surface
temperatures approaching 80 F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid eroding MLCINH. At the same time, an 80+
kt 300 mb jet is rounding the base of the trough, encouraging strong
700 mb WAA and associated convective initiation across northern TN
into southern OH. These storms should increase in coverage and
intensity through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The 12Z
BNA sounding showed a hodograph with strong low-level curvature and
elongation, indicative of strong vertical shear coinciding the warm
sector. 

As the upper trough and associated strong low-level flow shunt
eastward toward the central Appalachians, many of the intensifying
storms should become supercells, which will quickly merge into line
segments. Several instances of damaging gusts and a few tornadoes
are likely given the favorable overlapping buoyancy/vertical shear
space. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed soon to address the
impending severe threat.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36188625 38708468 39748280 40048140 40158081 40018027
            39618010 38878040 37938149 37168277 36478394 36078485
            36188625 


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