Subj : DAY2SVR: Enhanced Risk To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Jul 25 2023 16:18:00 ACUS02 KWNS 251720 SWODY2 SPC AC 251719 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Lower Michigan into northern Indiana/Ohio Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible with this activity. ....Great Lakes Vicinity... A compact but potent midlevel shortwave trough will shift east from the MN/WI/IA border to western PA/NY on Wednesday. This will bring a belt of enhanced westerly mid/upper flow focused on southern Lower MI into northern IN/OH. At the surface, mid/upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast ahead of an eastward developing surface low and cold front. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across southern or central Lower MI. Early morning showers and cloudiness are expected across parts of the Mid-MS Valley into the Great Lakes vicinity. This activity will result in lingering boundary-layer inhibition until afternoon when stronger large-scale ascent and continued warm advection erode capping. By mid/late afternoon, a tongue of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will support vigorous thunderstorm development near the surface low/triple point across southwest Lower MI and northern IN. Effective shear magnitudes near 35+ kt will support initial supercells. As convection develops eastward through the afternoon/evening some upscale development is possible given only modest directional shear and moderate/strong deep-layer westerly flow. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates amid strong instability will support damaging gust potential, while a more isolated hail risk will accompany any more discrete convection. Within the warm frontal zone and near the surface low, backed low-level flow will maximize low-level shear and forecast soundings indicate enlarged, favorably curved hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible near this zone across southern Lower MI into far northern IN/OH. The severe risk is expected to remain relatively confined to portions of Lower MI into northern IN/OH as any morning convection further west is expected to be weak/sub-severe and stronger forcing will remain focused further north across the Great Lakes. As a result the western and southern periphery of the Marginal and Slight risk areas have been trimmed across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity compared to the previous Day 2 outlook. ....Dakotas into the central High Plains... A surface trough will extend south from a surface low over south-central Canada and through the north-central Great Plains. A relatively moist airmass east of the wind shift will feature dewpoints in the 60s with 50s expected in parts of the central High Plains. Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe hail/wind are possible with the stronger storms. This activity will likely dissipate during the evening. If trends toward higher convective coverage increase across parts of ND into northwest MN, an upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Leitman.. 07/25/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .