Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 16:23:00

ACUS01 KWNS 241952
SWODY1
SPC AC 241950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts will be
possible into these evening across parts of the Northeast states and
the Ohio Valley.

....20z Update...

A small southward expansion to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over
TN has been made to account for a developing cluster over southeast
MO and potential for that cluster to continue south/southeast
through early evening. Reference MCD 1697 for short term details on
this severe risk. The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) as also been
expanded westward across parts of southern IN, central/western KY
and northwest TN to account for ongoing observational trends.
Reference MCD 1695 and WW 545 for more information.

Otherwise, the Marginal risk has been trimmed across much of MO into
parts of IL where morning convection has resulted in stronger
inhibition and lowered severe potential.

Reference MCDs 1696 and WW 544 for more information regarding short
term severe potential across the Northeast.

...Leitman.. 07/24/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023/

....Northeast...
Morning water vapor loop shows a series of shortwave troughs over
western/central NY and Lake Ontario. Lift ahead of these systems
will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms across parts
of NY/PA, spreading eastward into VT.  Forecast soundings show
relatively steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow
above 3km to help organize the stronger cells and pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.  Please refer to MCD #1694 for further details.

....OH Valley...
A moist low-level air mass is present today from southern OH
westward into IN/IL/KY with dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s.  A
shortwave trough over WI will approach the area later this
afternoon, with isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
likely.  Ample CAPE and sufficient northwest flow aloft will result
in a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts.  A
consensus of 12z guidance shows a higher concentration of storms
over parts of southwest OH and adjacent parts of KY/IN.  Therefore a
small SLGT has been added for that region.

....NV/UT/ID/MT/WY...
A large upper ridge is in place today over much of the Great Basin,
with a band of stronger flow extending from NV into UT/ID and WY/MT.
A shortwave trough embedded in this flow over NV will track
northeastward and aid in the development scattered high-based
showers and thunderstorms later today.  This activity may pose a
risk of gusty/damaging winds through the evening.

$$
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