Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Jul 23 2023 08:25:00

ACUS02 KWNS 230557
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday in the mid to
upper Mississippi River Valley.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over NM on Monday while a
broad, weak trough resides over the East.  A potent mid-level
shortwave trough will move east into the Pacific Northwest and
southern British Columbia.  Monsoonal thunderstorms will develop
across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin.  Some of the
thunderstorms over the Interior West will pose a risk for gusty
winds from the Mojave Desert northward into the Great Basin and into
MT.

....Southern half of MN into IA and adjacent portions of WI/IL/MO...
A northwest-flow regime is forecast for the mid to upper MS River
Valley on Monday.  Some models indicate a few showers/thunderstorms
may be ongoing Monday morning over the Upper Midwest and perhaps in
a separate area farther south near the NE/IA border.  A weak
mid-level disturbance is currently progged to move from southern MN
into the mid MS Valley by early evening.  It remains unclear whether
this feature will be an impetus for a few storms developing during
the day on the northeastern periphery of warmer 700-mb temperatures
(10-12 deg C) and a strong capping inversion.  Vertically veering
and strengthening flow with height supports storm organization if
storms develop and are sustained.

...Smith.. 07/23/2023

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