Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 10:31:00

ACUS02 KWNS 220545
SWODY2
SPC AC 220544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible mainly Sunday evening over
portions of Arizona.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the Four Corners with
a large-scale trough over the East.  A belt of moderate flow will
extend from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and
into the Dakotas/mid MO Valley.  In the low levels, a weakened
frontal zone will be draped over the coastal plain of the Gulf
Coast.

....Sonoran Desert...
Intense heating of the lower deserts and adjacent terrain of
southeast AZ and the Mogollon Rim will yield very steep lapse rates
by mid-late afternoon.  Appreciable moisture (PW 1.25 to 1.4 inches)
and terrain-based circulations will likely result in at least
isolated to scattered storms developing by late afternoon over the
Mogollon Rim and the mountains of southeast AZ.  Around 20 kt
easterly flow in the mid levels will aid in storm motions
propagating to the west into the lower deserts by early evening.
Very dry sub-cloud layers will potentially result in evaporatively
cooled, severe-caliber microbursts.  This activity will slowly
diminish into the late evening.

Elsewhere, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to
develop near the sea-breeze front and decaying synoptic front along
the Gulf Coast and northeast into the Carolinas.  Rich moisture
(high PW) through the column will result in relatively weak lapse
rates but moderate buoyancy by the afternoon.  A few stronger gusts
cannot be ruled out but some uncertainty remains where the more
active clusters will develop---precluding low severe probabilities.
A couple of storms may develop over ND in a conditional environment
supporting vigorous storms.  Isolated to scattered diurnal storms
are possible over the northern Rockies on the northern periphery of
the mid-level ridge over the West.  Steep lapse rates and dry
sub-cloud layers could yield localized strong gusts.

...Smith.. 07/22/2023

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