Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussio
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 17:12:00

ACUS11 KWNS 182129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182129 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...far western Tennessee...northeast Arkanas...and
northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 182129Z - 190000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will
remain possible for a few more hours, and a new watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Radar shows a decelerating outflow boundary extending
from extreme northeast AR to just northeast of the Memphis TN area.
Recent trends indicate strengthening storms on the southern
fringe/outflow of the southeast MO MCS, with impressive echo IR
presentation. Surface analysis confirms a very moist and unstable
air mass remains in place south of the AR activity and west of the
TN outflow, with dewpoints approaching 80 F in spots.  Given the
uncapped air mass and robust convection now ongoing over northeast
AR, a new watch will likely be issued downstream extending into
parts of western TN and northern MS.

...Jewell/Edwards.. 07/18/2023

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35999133 35959060 35938999 35878980 35768951 35438910
            35178843 34798820 34428837 34228879 34328973 34579039
            35029085 35589130 35999133 


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