Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 09:10:00

ACUS01 KWNS 151211
SWODY1
SPC AC 151209

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE....

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains
of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains. Hail and wind are
the main threats with this activity. Isolated strong storms may also
be noted across portions of the Appalachian region.

....Eastern NM/West TX...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring overnight
across much of the TX Panhandle.  This activity will dissipate later
this morning, but leave a surface outflow boundary that stretches
from south of LBB into eastern NM.  The air mass to the north of
this boundary should recover later today, as dewpoints in the 60s
and south-southeasterly low-level winds provide a moist upslope flow
into the Raton ridge area of northeast NM.  Large scale forcing is
subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains
on northeast NM and spread southeastward toward the TX Panhandle by
evening.  25-30 knot northwest flow aloft, coupled with moderate
CAPE values and very steep mid-level lapse rates, will be favorable
for a few supercells capable of large hail.  However, storms are
likely to congeal into bowing structures with an increased risk of
damaging winds

....Ohio Valley/Appalachians...
A broad upper trough is present today over much of the eastern
states.  Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from lower
MI into IN/KY/TN ahead of a weak cold front.  Mid-level lapse rates
are not particularly steep and widespread clouds will limit daytime
heating/destabilization.  This suggests that despite considerable
coverage of thunderstorms today over the region, most of the
activity will remain below severe limits.  Nevertheless, pockets of
greater heating or mesoscale organization of convective clusters
could result in locally strong/damaging wind gusts.

...Hart/Kerr.. 07/15/2023

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