Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 19:16:00 ACUS02 KWNS 071732 SWODY2 SPC AC 071730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High Plains area southeastward across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma to the Lower Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley areas on Saturday. ....High Plains vicinity into parts of OK... Relatively moist low-level southeasterly flow will again support moderate destabilization in areas near the higher terrain of WY/CO/NM on Saturday afternoon. Moderate west-northwesterly flow will result in effective shear of 40+ kt, and isolated supercells will be possible from near the Big Horns in WY southward to near/east of the CO Front Range and Raton Mesa in NM. Large hail and possibly a tornado or two will be the primary threats with initial supercell activity. Some upscale growth into one or more southeastward-moving clusters will be possible during the evening, which could spread a severe-wind threat (in addition to hail) into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Farther east into a larger part of OK and north TX, the likelihood of morning convection results in uncertainty regarding the severe threat later in the day. However, there will be some potential for isolated diurnal convection along an outflow-reinforced surface boundary, which would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Later Saturday night, an MCS could emerge from the High Plains and move southeastward, though the most favored corridor for a late night severe-wind threat remains uncertain. ....Lower MS/OH Valley and vicinity... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible from AR into parts of the lower MS and OH Valleys, in conjunction with multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs and along/ahead of a cold front and any remnant outflows. The details of the potential scenarios remain uncertain, but with favorable low-level moisture and sufficient deep-layer shear, a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging winds and some hail will be possible. Some threat could spread as far northeast as the lower Great Lakes, though destabilization becomes increasingly uncertain with northeastward extent. ...Dean.. 07/07/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .