Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 08:42:00

ACUS02 KWNS 050601
SWODY2
SPC AC 050600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe storms are forecast from the northern High
Plains southeastward to Kansas and Oklahoma.

....Central and northern High Plains/central Plains...
Ongoing thunderstorms -- in the form of an at least loosely
organized MCS -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of southern Kansas/Oklahoma and perhaps the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.  Local severe potential -- mainly in the
form of damaging wind gusts -- may accompany a couple of the
strongest storms, before convection diminishes through the morning.

Later, as southeasterly post-front upslope flow continues across the
High Plains, daytime heating of an amply moist boundary layer will
result in moderate destabilization -- likely from eastern Wyoming
and adjacent southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle
southward into the southern High Plains.  Subsequent/isolated storm
development is therefore expected by mid to late afternoon across
this region, and perhaps as far west as southwestern Montana.

With a belt of moderate (averaging around 30 kt) mid-level
westerlies from the Intermountain West into the central Plains, atop
low-level southeasterly flow across the High Plains, shear
sufficient for organized/rotating storms will be present.  As a
result, expect supercells to develop, with attendant risks for large
hail and locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two.

Overnight, storms may grow upscale and move off the higher terrain
as an MCS -- with the most likely corridor being across Kansas.
Should this occur, continued severe risk -- including damaging winds
and some hail -- would likely continue into the overnight hours.

...Goss.. 07/05/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

.