Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 15:51:00 ACUS02 KWNS 281737 SWODY2 SPC AC 281736 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and hail are possible across the region from Illinois into Kentucky. A couple tornadoes may also occur. Severe hail and wind are also expected from northeast Colorado eastward into Nebraska, with a tornado or two possible. ....Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the lower MS Valley on Thursday, with moderate midlevel flow around the ridge from the central Plains into the OH Valley and Appalachians with 500 mb speed of 40-50 kt. Meanwhile, an upper trough will skirt the area from northern MN into the upper Great Lakes, flattening the ridge and aiding lift from IA to the OH Valley. At the surface, weak low pressure will exist over IA and northern MO, with a boundary extending westward across KS with weak wind shift. A very moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the IA/MO surface trough, with the eastern edge of the better moisture roughly from IN southward across middle TN. Ample moisture will exist for severe storms even north of the central Plains portion of the boundary, with weak/easterly low-level winds across CO, NE and northern KS. Areas of storms may be ongoing from NE eastward into IL Thursday morning, which reduces predictability for this forecast. Denoted threat corridors may change in subsequent outlook updates. ....IL/IA/MO southeastward into KY... Areas of storms may be ongoing from eastern IA/northern MO southeastward into IL, IN, and parts of KY, possibly producing damaging winds and aided by warm advection out of the west. Some of this activity could persist southeastward during the day into KY and TN, given the favorable northwest flow regime and inflow of theta-e from the west. In the wake of this activity, a very unstable air mass will remain in place where outflows have not stabilized. Conditionally, supercell profiles will exist with potential for very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes assuming cellular storm mode. However, this is highly uncertain given the potential for widespread early storms. As such, the significant hail and tornado probabilities are conditional, but warranted given some of the forecast instability profiles. Additional activity may develop during the afternoon over WI, given the influence of the wave to the north and dependent on enough instability remaining, with hail possible. ....Central Plains... Storms are likely to form over WY and into eastern CO Thursday afternoon as the air mass remains moist and unstable with increasing mid to high level winds stretching hodographs. Large hail appears to be the main concern while storms are cellular but also with severe outflow potential with time. Strong wind gusts are likely as well farther south into western KS where hot temperatures will exist. Storms may persist overnight across western KS into NE aided by the southwesterly 850 mb flow. ...Jewell.. 06/28/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .