Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 16:26:00 ACUS02 KWNS 261735 SWODY2 SPC AC 261733 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds are most probable in a corridor from southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle eastward across those states. Sporadic severe hail will be possible over parts of the northern Plains, with locally damaging gusts over parts of the Mid Atlantic. ....Southern KS/northern OK area... Models have come into relatively good agreement depicting a corridor of damaging wind potential, and the area has been upgraded. Storms are expected to initiate over northeast NM into southeast CO during the late afternoon, and grow upscale into an MCS as outflow is produced. Strong instability with steep lapse rates will support such an MCS, despite capping farther east during the evening. Midlevel winds around 40 kt combined with the steep lapse rates should result in a long swath of wind damage potential, but perhaps narrow. Wind gusts over 65 kt will be possible. In addition, wind-driven hail may occur, especially during the first few hours of development from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Mainly the coastal Mid Atlantic... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain as an upper trough slowly moves east over the area. Low-level moisture will remain over the area despite weak westerlies aloft, though midlevel subsidence may exist. Daytime heating and weak convergence should however lead to scattered thunderstorms, and a few may produce locally strong wind gusts. ....Black Hills region/northern Plains... A surface trough will develop from the Dakotas into western NE, near the northern edge of the upper ridge. Models indicate minor disturbances rotating around the ridge, where 40-50 kt midlevel winds will exist. Storms are expected to form over northeast WY into western SD during the afternoon with straight hodographs favoring hail, and near the surface trough from western NE into SD. Capping will likely limit coverage over the moist sector with eastward extent, but wind profiles here will favor supercells. ...Jewell.. 06/26/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .