Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 17:21:00 ACUS02 KWNS 141731 SWODY2 SPC AC 141730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...MUCH OF OK...NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE ARKLATEX...AND FROM SOUTHERN MS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity and portions of the central Great Plains Thursday into Thursday night. Some of these may become capable of producing damaging hail and wind gusts. ....Synopsis... A trough/ridge/trough upper pattern is forecast to persist across the northern CONUS and Canada on Thursday, with some deepening of both troughs promoted by shortwave troughs rotating through their bases. This region will remain split from the westerlies that extend from the Southwest across the southern Plains and Southeast farther south. A more complex pattern is anticipated within this corridor, with several convectively augmented shortwave troughs moving through this belt of stronger flow. At the surface, a convectively reinforced boundary will likely be in place across southern portions of the Southeast states early, potentially sharpening throughout the day. A cold front is expected to move southeastward across the northern Plains, while cyclogenesis occurs further south across southeast CO. Expectation is for the resulting low to then move eastward into western KS, with an attendant dryline moving eastward across the TX/OK Panhandles. ....Central/Southern Plains... Ample low-level moisture is expected to be in place from the southern Plains northwestward into the central High Plains/central Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Expectation is for upper 60s dewpoints to reach through much of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK, with mid 60s into southeast CO/southwest KS and low 70s remaining farther south across north TX (and possibly south-central OK). This low-level moisture beneath a strong EML will result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough could with convergence along an eastward-progressing dryline is expected to result in convective initiation, likely beginning across southeast CO and then expanding southward across the eastern TX Panhandle and into western OK. Moderate shear will combine with strong buoyancy to create an environment supportive of supercells. Long hodographs and strong mid-level flow suggest very large hail (i.e. 2 to 3" in diameter) is probable. Strong downdrafts are possible as well, with some gusts from 65-75 mph possible. Modest southeasterly surface winds are expected east of the dryline, with the veering low-level wind profiles supporting tornadoes as well. Portions of this region may need higher probabilities in later outlooks. Warm mid-level temperatures farther east may temper the wind gust and tornado threat with eastern extent, but steep lapse rates and strong shear suggest the hail threat should persist into the evening. Additionally, elevated storm development is possible across eastern OK into the Arklatex vicinity during the evening and overnight. Large hail is the greatest threat with this later activity. ....Central/Northeast Gulf Coast... Despite the likelihood that one or more convective systems will move across the Southeast on Wednesday, surface dewpoints are still expected to be in low 70s across much of the Gulf Coast, to the south of a convectively reinforced boundary extending across the region. Latitude where this boundary ends up tomorrow morning is uncertain, but most guidance suggests it will extend from southern MS through southern GA but early afternoon. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely still be in place over this region, contributing to strong/extreme buoyancy by early afternoon. Expectation for early afternoon storm development within this environment. Vertical shear will be anomalously strong and will likely support an initially supercellular mode. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary severe risk. Some evolution towards bowing structures capable of damaging gusts is anticipated after the initially cellular mode. ...Mosier.. 06/14/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .