Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 17:06:00 ACUS02 KWNS 121733 SWODY2 SPC AC 121732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected throughout the period Tuesday, from parts of the southern Plains eastward across the Southeast. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern. ....Synopsis... An upper low will move slowly eastward across the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, contributing to height falls along the East Coast. Meanwhile, a weak upper ridge will exist over the Southwest, with a belt of strong mid to upper level westerlies from the southern Plains into the Southeast. At the surface, 60+ dewpoints will remain roughly from TX/OK eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with 70+ dewpoints from TX eastward across the northern Gulf Coast and FL. Drier air will exist across much of the MO/Upper MS/OH Valleys owing the cooling influence of the upper low. However, weak low pressure is expected over Lower MI, with at least weak instability developing in that region. Otherwise, a mean surface boundary will extend roughly from northern TX eastward to GA/SC, reinforced by bouts of convection and outflow. This general zone, beneath the favorably strong westerlies aloft, will be the primary focus for severe storms throughout the period on Tuesday. ....TX eastward into GA/SC... Clusters of storms are expected throughout the period, and the influence of antecedent convection will have an impact on where the greatest threat corridors develop. At this time, it appears that storms will be ongoing from parts of MS, AL into GA and eventually SC during the day, with one or more clusters possible. Heating of a moist air mass will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg in spots, with deep-layer effective shear around 50 kt. This will favor large hail and swaths of damaging wind, perhaps very large hail. The proportion of supercells may depend on whether outflow scour much of the warm sector. To the west, large-scale lift may be reduced in the wake of the systems passing to the east, with midlevel subsidence found in some forecast soundings. However, very strong instability will remain in place from TX into the lower MS Valley, and strong heating and convergence along any residual boundaries will provide a focus for storms during the afternoon. Very large hail may occur along with locally damaging gusts, from northeast TX into northern LA. Although locally higher-end hail potential will exist, predictability is a bit low to provide higher severe probabilities at this time. ....Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles... Residual moisture, surface heating and the influence of a low-amplitude wave will lead to storms forming over southeast CO and northeast NM during the afternoon. Strong high-level flow atop weak southerly winds will lead to cells moving in a southeastward direction, producing hail and locally gusty winds. These storms will likely encounter increased CIN from western OK into northwest TX, with lessening threat there overnight. ....Central IN into western OH... Westerly surface winds and heating will lead to a narrow plume of steeper low-level lapse rates from IL into southern IN and OH, with temperatures in the 70s F. Dewpoints will generally be in the 40s to near 50 F, and this may contribute to weak instability during the peak heating hours. The combination of mixing of 30 kt flow at 850 mb and increasing precipitation during the afternoon could lead to gusty winds. At this time, the threat for severe does not appear high enough to introduce low wind probabilities. Any cellular convection could result in small/sub-severe hail as well. ...Jewell.. 06/12/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .