Subj : MESO: Severe potential TX
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 15:10:00

ACUS11 KWNS 101908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101908 
TXZ000-102215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...parts of north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 101908Z - 102215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop after 20Z near or just
west/southwest of the Metroplex. Damaging hail and winds will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an outflow boundary stalled near
the Metroplex and extending east/southeast into northwest LA.
Meanwhile, a low-pressure trough continues westward into much of
northwest TX.

Visible imagery show Cu fields beginning to develop near these
boundaries, and into central TX near the low-level heat axis.
Plentiful moisture exists south of the outflow boundary, with 70s F
dewpoints contributing to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level
convergence is currently maximized in a several county area
surrounding the Metroplex, where the outflow boundary intersects the
veered winds related to the low-level heat axis and surface trough.

Several more hours of heating will lead to storms developing in
these areas, with movement in an east/southeast direction through
evening. Isolated significant hail will be possible with cellular
storm mode, with increasing threat of damaging winds/downbursts as
storms congeal over time. As such, a watch will be needed soon.

...Jewell/Thompson.. 06/10/2023

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31759520 31359539 31009574 30959611 31059665 31379757
            31679805 32239830 32769833 33069823 33139801 32959759
            32879707 32779661 32739612 32559546 32379528 32129521
            31759520 


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