Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Jun 09 2023 18:52:00 ACUS01 KWNS 091957 SWODY1 SPC AC 091956 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible late this afternoon into early tonight, mainly from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. ....20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward in the Raton Mesa vicinity, where convection is increasing within a modestly unstable and sheared environment. Also, the 5% hail has been expanded into central NE, where severe hail was noted earlier this afternoon, and MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg may continue to support isolated hail with the strongest storms. Otherwise, no major changes have been made. See MCD 958 for more information regarding the short-term threat in the central Plains. Also see the previous discussion below for more details. ...Dean.. 06/09/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023/ ....Eastern CO/western KS to west TX through tonight... Embedded speed maxima within the southern stream will eject east-northeastward from NM toward the southern High Plains through tonight. This will support continued weak lee troughing across the southern High Plains, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to mix into the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon immediately east of the trough/dryline. Thunderstorm initiation appears more probable along the east slopes of the higher terrain in southeast CO by early-mid afternoon, and convection will spread eastward toward southwest KS/OK Panhandle/northern TX Panhandle through early tonight. Deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt with relatively straight hodographs), but MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg and DCAPE > 1200 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates will favor occasional severe outflow gusts as the main threat late this afternoon into early tonight. The degree of storm cluster organization is somewhat in question, but the threat for severe gusts appears to be high enough to warrant a Slight risk area. Farther south, a few storms should form this afternoon near the high terrain in southwest TX, and storms will subsequently spread eastward this evening. Deep mixing will support high-based storms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. Thunderstorm development is less certain along the arcing dryline from west central TX into the TX Panhandle. If storms form, there will be a conditional threat for damaging gusts and some hail. ....FL this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough will move eastward over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, while a surface front stalls near the FL/GA border. Strong surface heating is underway across FL, and thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along the front across north FL and along sea breeze boundaries. Weak low-midlevel, west/southwesterly flow profiles will favor the Atlantic coast sea breeze for primary storm development, with multicell clusters the main storm mode. Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg) and DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts with downbursts. $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .