Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 07:57:00

ACUS01 KWNS 040558
SWODY1
SPC AC 040557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AREA...AND ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and/or marginal hail
will be possible today from middle and eastern Tennessee into
central Alabama and northwest Georgia, as well as across South
Texas.

....Synopsis...
The blocking pattern aloft will continue to prevail across the U.S.,
with ridging centered over the northern Plains/Canadian Prairie,
while upper lows drift eastward across coastal western Canada, and
southward across southern New England through the period.

At the surface, a rather weak/nondescript pattern will persist, with
high pressure prevailing in most areas.

....Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity...
As a weak lobe of mid-level cyclonic vorticity advances
southwestward across the Mid South region today, ascent will help
foster scattered, afternoon thunderstorm development, as daytime
heating contributes supports moderate destabilization.  Though shear
will remain weak, quasi-unidirectional east-northeasterly flow aloft
may support upscale growth into a semi-organized convective cluster
or two.  Gusty/locally damaging winds and perhaps marginal hail may
occur with a couple of the strongest storms, before storms weaken
into the evening hours.

....South Texas...
A very weak southern-stream mid-level disturbance will linger over
the southern Plains vicinity today.  As a result, clusters of
diurnally initiating storms are expected once again, as the moist
airmass heats/destabilizes.  While storms appear likely to remain
largely sub-severe, a few occurrences of strong/gusty winds and/or
hail will likely occur.  The most likely area for a minor
concentration of risk appears to be over south Texas.  Here, on the
northern fringe of stronger southern-stream mid-level flow, a couple
of semi-organized late afternoon storms may prove capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts and hail, before storms begin
to diminish diurnally.

...Goss/Squitieri.. 06/04/2023

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