Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed May 31 2023 15:37:00 ACUS02 KWNS 311731 SWODY2 SPC AC 311730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern High Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening. ....Southern High Plains... A remnant MCS will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern High Plains. The evolution of this feature will greatly influence severe potential across the region, with the primary threat likely to be focused near any remnant outflow boundaries, and also potentially with some rejuvenation of morning convection during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the greatest relative severe threat appears to be across parts of the TX South Plains. An outflow boundary may become draped across this area during the afternoon, while mid/upper-level flow begins to increase in response to the eastward-moving mid/upper-level cyclone near the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of supercells may evolve near the outflow boundary, along the southern periphery of any MCV that might develop from extensive convection farther north. Large hail would likely be the primary threat, especially with any supercells that persist into the evening as mid/upper-level flow continues to increase. Some tornado threat may also evolve, depending on the orientation of any outflow boundary relative to supercell motion, and the extent of modification that can occur on the cool side of the boundary. Farther north, some severe potential remains evident into the TX Panhandle and western OK, but uncertainty remains regarding the extent of morning convection and potential for destabilization during the afternoon. Morning storms could intensify as they move eastward during the afternoon, with veering wind profiles supporting some modestly organized cells/clusters and an attendant threat of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. Farther west into east-central NM, modest instability and favorably veered wind profiles (likely influenced somewhat by outflow) may support a strong cell or two capable of isolated large hail during the afternoon. ....Northern High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is possible across much of MT and adjacent portions of the northern High Plains, generally to the north and east of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough over portions of the northern Rockies. Weak deep-layer shear should generally limit storm organization, and any more focused areas of severe potential remain unclear at this time, though some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for portions of the region. ...Dean.. 05/31/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .