Subj : DAY1SVR: Enhanced Risk To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri May 26 2023 10:37:00 ACUS01 KWNS 261246 SWODY1 SPC AC 261245 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN CO TO SOUTHEASTERN MT... ....SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes, very large hail to 3 inches in diameter and severe thunderstorm winds of 60 to 70 mph are possible this afternoon/evening across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Large hail and a few severe gusts will also be possible from northern Colorado to southeastern Montana. ....Southeast NM/southwest TX this afternoon/evening... A convective cluster is ongoing this morning across the TX South Plains. Outflow from this convection will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening, just east of the higher terrain. Within the southern stream, an embedded mid-upper speed max will move toward southern NM this afternoon, providing somewhat stronger deep-layer vertical shear/longer hodographs compared to the previous few days. With boundary-layer dewpoints persisting in the 56-62 F range and daytime heating/mixing, MLCAPE will increase to 2000-2500 J/kg with diminishing convective inhibition. The storm environment this afternoon across southeast NM/southwest TX will be characterized by strong buoyancy and effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. Long hodographs will favor splitting supercells capable of producing very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, along with damaging winds. There will be the potential for a couple of tornadoes where boundary-layer dewpoints remain near 60 F, especially where low-level hodograph curvature and SRH are greater near the modifying outflow boundary later this afternoon/evening. Like previous days, there will be some potential for upscale growth into an east-southeastward moving cluster with some continuing severe hail/wind threat into early tonight across west central TX. ....Central/northern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will rotate north-northeastward from UT to MT, on the eastern periphery of a quasi-stationary midlevel trough over the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Weak lee cyclogenesis is expected from just east of the CO Front Range into WY, which will help focus initial storm development this afternoon near and just downstream from the higher terrain. Despite scattered thunderstorms during the past few days, steep midlevel lapse rates persist from UT/CO over WY, and boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the mid-upper 50s from northeast CO to eastern MT. Surface heating will boost MLCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, with the aforementioned steep lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear supporting a mix of marginal supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts. ....South FL this afternoon... A subtle midlevel trough will rotate southeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, around the western periphery of the developing low just offshore of SC. Drier low-level air is spreading southward into central FL, but south FL will remain in the low 70s dewpoints today. Surface heating will boost MLCAPE to the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and there will be modest southwesterly shear. Though thermodynamic profiles are not particularly favorable for strong downdrafts, somewhat organized storm structures and precipitation loading could result in isolated wet microbursts this afternoon. ...Thompson/Broyles.. 05/26/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .