Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri May 26 2023 10:36:00 ACUS02 KWNS 260549 SWODY2 SPC AC 260548 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ....High Plains... The upper level pattern on Saturday will be characterized by a western trough, ridging over the Southern Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast area, and a closed low over the Mid-South/Southeast vicinity. A shortwave upper trough emanating from the western trough will spread across the northern High Plains during the afternoon/evening. This will provide some focus for thunderstorm development. The shortwave trough will provide some enhancement to south/southwesterly mid/upper flow, with effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt forecast. This should be sufficient for some organization to convection. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region from northeast CO northward to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Mainly upper 40s to 50s F (with pockets near 60F) surface dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for weak to moderate destabilization. Hail and strong outflow winds will be possible with some of the stronger/better organized cells. The combination of modest shear and instability may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm threat, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) will be maintained with the initial Day 2 outlook. Further south toward the southern High Plains, quite a bit of uncertainty in convective evolution remains. Convection from the Day 1/Friday period will leave behind cloud cover and outflows, with some potential for showers/thunderstorms to be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the TX Panhandle/west TX vicinity. Upper level ridging will persist, but convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will float across the area on west/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the southern portion of the western upper trough. Up to low 60s F surface dewpoints will be maintained beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs this will allow for moderate destabilization. Vertical shear will be marginal, but could support some storm organization, offering hail and strong gust potential. Exactly where stronger storms may develop remains uncertain and will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ....Carolinas... A surface low is forecast to deepen off the SC coast and shift northeast through the period near the NC coast. Forecast guidance continues to vary with the track of the low, which is resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential. Better boundary-layer moisture will likely remain confined to far eastern NC, with southerly winds perhaps remaining just offshore. If confidence increases in the low tracking more inland, some potential for strong storms may develop across eastern NC, but uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time. ...Leitman.. 05/26/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .