Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu May 25 2023 18:12:00 ACUS02 KWNS 251735 SWODY2 SPC AC 251733 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains on Friday. Highest severe thunderstorm coverage is expected over eastern New Mexico and southeast Montana. ....Eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of western Texas... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas Panhandle/South Plains and vicinity, potentially as an MCS shifting southeastward across the region. Meanwhile, daytime heating of the amply moist (50s to lower 60s) boundary layer beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will yield moderate destabilization in areas away from any remnant cloud cover. As such, scattered, afternoon convective development is expected across eastern New Mexico and into adjacent portions of Texas, with more isolated development expected as far south as the Permian Basin and Big Bend area. With moderate westerly flow across the area, atop low-level southeasterlies, organized/rotating storms are expected. Along with potential for large hail and locally damaging winds, a tornado or two will also be possible. Tornado potential could be slightly augmented near/north of a possible outflow from the earlier storms/MCS, but will refrain from any possible bump up to 5% probability at this time, due to uncertainty with respect to prior convective evolution. Storms will likely increase in coverage/grow upscale during the evening, possibly into a loosely organized MCS that would shift eastward across the South Plains region. Severe risk should gradually diminish through the late evening/overnight hours as the boundary layer diurnally stabilizes. ....Southeastern Montana/northeastern Wyoming vicinity... As a subtle mid-level disturbance moves north-northeastward toward the northern High Plains, afternoon storm development is expected to occur in the vicinity of lee troughing, from central/eastern Montana southward into Colorado, as the airmass diurnally destabilizes. While somewhat weak shear will prevail across the northern High Plains area, likely limiting overall severe potential to some degree, slightly greater shear is expected across the southeastern Montana vicinity, where a weak surface low may develop in response to the approach of the aforementioned upper feature. Here, a few stronger/weakly rotating storms may evolve by late afternoon and last into the early evening hours, accompanied by risk for large hail and locally damaging winds. Storms/severe risk will gradually diminish through late evening, as convection shifts eastward. ...Goss.. 05/25/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .