Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon May 22 2023 15:29:00 ACUS02 KWNS 221659 SWODY2 SPC AC 221658 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. Additional strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly producing strong gusts, also are possible across Florida Tuesday afternoon. ....Southern Plains... A fairly similar pattern to the previous couple of days is expected to persist on Tuesday across the southern Plains vicinity. Some convective enhancement of midlevel vorticity is forecast, though deep-layer flow will remain generally weak. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles will result in 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north/northwest toward the TX South Plains/northwest TX and into parts of southern OK. More modest boundary-layer moisture is expected into the Panhandles. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates combined with increasing boundary-layer moisture will support a slightly more unstable environment compared to previous days, with MLCAPE values from 1500-2500 J/kg expected. Large-scale forcing will remain nebulous, but strong heating will allow for thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon along the surface trough from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle southeastward into the South Plains vicinity. Marginal supercells initially will likely grow upscale through consolidating outflows. This activity will likely propagate east/southeast with northwest flow in the upper two-thirds of the vertical wind profile. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs around 00z due to some modest increase/development of a low-level jet is forecast. This will increase effective SRH, but shear is expect to remain very weak through 1-2 km. A brief spin-up is possible, but overall tornado potential will remain low. ....Florida... Weak mid/upper troughing will persist across the Southeast with various convectively enhanced vorticity maxima migrating across the area. A seasonally moist airmass is in place, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. Strong heating but generally poor midlevel lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg amid modest vertical shear (EBWD around 25 kt). Thunderstorms are expected to develop along residual outflow and sea breeze boundaries. Multicell clusters posing a risk for strong downburst winds and sporadic wind damage are expected. Additionally, elongated hodographs and some enhancement of upper level winds may support marginally severe hail potential in the strongest/better organized cores. ....Northern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the northern Plains. However, midlevel shortwave impulses emanating for the western U.S. upper trough will migrate through the northern Plains ridge. Building high pressure over central Canada will result in a south/southwest sagging backdoor cold front impinging on the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this feature will allow for modest surface dewpoints into eastern MT and ND. Steep lapse rates will reside over the region and strong heating will result in deep boundary-layer mixing. Weak vertical shear (20 kt or less) will limit updraft organization/longevity. A few strong gusts will be possible with stronger cells, but overall severe potential appears too limited to include probabilities at this time. ...Leitman.. 05/22/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .