Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri May 05 2023 15:16:00 ACUS01 KWNS 051924 SWODY1 SPC AC 051923 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely across central Texas and in the central Great Plains, centered on 4 to 10 PM CDT. Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. ....20z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over Louisiana has been trimmed based on location of ongoing convection and trends in short-term forecast guidance. Otherwise, the only other changes have been to trim the 10 percent general thunderstorm line across parts of OK/southeast KS/southwest MO/far northwest AR. Strong capping should preclude thunderstorm development in these areas through the remainder of the period. ...Leitman.. 05/05/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023/ ....Central/North Texas... A moist/moderately unstable environment is expected near/east of the north/south-oriented dryline this afternoon. Ample insolation/mixing near the dry line should contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon particularly across central Texas near/west of I-35. Despite weak low-level flow, 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support a few slow-moving supercells with mid-level rotation capable of producing very large hail. Although convective inhibition will nocturnally increase, there is some potential that a cluster of storms could persist for a time this evening across central Texas, with damaging winds a possibility. ....Central High Plains... On the east/south periphery of the Great Basin-centered upper trough, a shortwave trough/speed max over the southern Rockies this morning should reach and increasingly influence the central High Plains by late afternoon and evening. Deepening of a lee trough will occur through peak heating, with modest low-level moisture advecting west-northwestward across the region. Initial high-based thunderstorm development is expected across far eastern Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle and northeast Colorado, with storms expected to intensify as the move into somewhat richer low-level moisture and greater buoyancy, including supercells amidst 40+ kt effective shear. Large hail should be the most common hazard, but a locally damaging wind gust and/or low tornado potential will exist as well. The severe threat could persist eastward into central Nebraska/north-central Kansas early in the overnight. ....Lower Mississippi Valley... The remnants of an overnight/early morning convective cluster continue to spread offshore into the northern Gulf of Mexico generally to the south of Mobile. Dual weak mid-level perturbations/MCV will continue to spread eastward away from a northwest/southeast-oriented convectively reinforced warm front and zone of differential heating. Nevertheless, storm redevelopment, such as what may already being occurring across the ArkLaMiss vicinity, is expected at least on a widely scattered sense as outflow modifies and the boundary warms/destabilizes. Isolated instances of severe hail and/ow wind will be possible this afternoon through early evening as storms spread southeastward. $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .