Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon May 01 2023 17:22:00

ACUS02 KWNS 011719
SWODY2
SPC AC 011717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERMIAN
BASIN...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible over the Permian Basin late
Tuesday afternoon through the mid evening.

....Synopsis...
An omega block pattern will characterize the flow regime over the
Lower 48 states on Tuesday.  Two nearly stationary mid-level lows
will be located near San Francisco Bay and the Lower Great Lakes.  A
mid-level ridge will extend from the southern High Plains
north-northwestward through the northern Rockies.  Surface high
pressure will reside over the mid MO Valley with a narrow moisture
plume protruding from the lower Rio Grande Valley northwestward into
the southern High Plains.

The early stage of northwestward moisture return will be ongoing
Tuesday across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the Edwards
Plateau/Big Bend.  The development of a weak lee trough/dryline will
focus the northwest periphery of marginal moisture into the Permian
Basin by late afternoon.  Very strong heating and steep mid-level
lapse rates will result in a well-mixed boundary layer and SBCAPE
around 1000 J/kg.  Low-level southeasterlies veering and
strengthening to 20-kt westerly 500-mb flow, will result in around
25-30 effective shear.  Model guidance indicates at least widely
scattered thunderstorms developing by early evening.  Isolated
severe gusts may accompany the stronger downdrafts as this activity
aggregates into one or two small clusters during the evening before
dissipating.

...Smith.. 05/01/2023

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