Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Apr 28 2023 15:09:00 ACUS02 KWNS 281730 SWODY2 SPC AC 281729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the Southeast Saturday into Saturday night, with the greatest threat currently expected across much of north/central Florida into southern Georgia. A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds will be the primary threats, with some large hail also possible. ....Southeast... An MCS should be well established over the western Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period Saturday morning. Most guidance indicates this bowing complex will maintain its structure and integrity through the day as it moves quickly eastward. By late Saturday afternoon into early evening, the MCS should impact much of the FL Panhandle into the northern/central FL Peninsula. Ahead of the approaching MCS, low-level moisture will attempt to return northward across FL into southern GA, as an upper trough pivots quickly eastward from the southern Plains over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Moderate instability should be in place along/south of an effective marine warm front, with strong deep-layer shear present across much of the warm sector as mid/upper-level winds increase with the approaching upper trough. Damaging winds should be the main threat with the MCS as it moves over north/central FL and southern GA, with a couple of embedded tornadoes also possible. With cool temperatures aloft and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates, large hail may also occur with initially semi-discrete convection that develops along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. There is some potential for a second round of severe thunderstorms, including supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, late Saturday evening and continuing through the night. This threat will be tied to the ejecting upper wave and rapidly strengthening southerly winds associated with a 40-50+ kt low-level jet. If the airmass behind the MCS can recover quickly enough, then both low-level and deep-layer shear appear quite favorable for supercells along/ahead of a cold front. The main uncertainty is whether sufficient instability will materialize to realize this potential severe threat. Given the possibility for multiple rounds of severe convection, and trends in 12Z guidance, have expanded the Slight Risk across much of north/central FL and more of southern GA to account for both the MCS track and potential evening/overnight supercells. ...Gleason.. 04/28/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .