Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 17:29:00 ACUS02 KWNS 271732 SWODY2 SPC AC 271730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered storms are forecast to produce damaging hail from late afternoon through evening from north-central Texas to the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians. ....Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will progress southward into the Southern Plains from the central Rockies as a mid-level impulse traverses the Southeast and Carolina Piedmont region tomorrow/Friday. The low-level mass response in both of these regions will be surface low development, with enhanced low-level convergence and moisture advection supporting an increase in convective coverage. The increase in boundary layer flow/shear in both regions will also support storm organization, with strong to severe storm development likely, especially in north-central to south-central TX. ....Southern Plains... On Friday afternoon, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect northward across TX, from the Gulf Coast to the Red River. Up to 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread the low-level moisture plume by afternoon peak heating, contributing to 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around this time, a surface cold front is expected to merge with a dryline progressing eastward from the TX Hill Country, resulting in convective initiation and rapid intensification. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs with modest low-level curvature ahead of the cold front/dryline intersection, suggesting that supercells will be the initial mode before storm mergers result in linear segments or even a possible MCS. The elongated hodographs and breadth of buoyancy above the freezing level suggest that large hail will be the primary threat with supercells, with a couple of instances of 3+ inch stones possible. A couple of tornadoes also cannot be ruled out with some of the more dominant, longer-lasting supercells. However, the predominant severe threat should be severe gusts once storm/cold pool mergers take place. ....Florida to the Carolina Piedmont... A surface low will deepen over OH with the passage of a mid-level perturbation, supporting modest low-level moisture return beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km low to mid-level lapse rates from the eastern OH Valley, to the Carolina Piedmont and the Florida Peninsula region. Surface dewpoints are expected to range from the mid 50s in the central Appalachians to near 70 F across southern GA and FL, contributing to MLCAPE of 750 J/kg in the eastern OH Valley to over 1500 J/kg across the Southeast. In combination with this buoyancy, southerly low-level flow overspread by 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly winds will contribute to elongated hodographs. These hodographs, along with the aforementioned buoyancy, will support organized thunderstorm development, with a couple of damaging gusts and large hail the main threats. ...Squitieri.. 04/27/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .