Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Apr 24 2023 15:41:00

ACUS01 KWNS 241947
SWODY1
SPC AC 241945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and early
evening over parts of central/south Florida, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.

....20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to the Slight Risk across parts of
central/south FL based on ongoing convective trends and short-term
guidance. A threat for large hail and damaging winds will continue
through the afternoon and early evening with robust convection that
has developed across this area. See recently issued Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 165 for more details.

...Gleason.. 04/24/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023/

....Central/South FL...
Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive mid-level shortwave
trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward the FL
Peninsula.  Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread FL in the
next few hours as diurnal heating maximizes.  This should lead to
numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show
relatively cool temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb), along with rich
low-level moisture and robust daytime heating.  Low-level winds are
relatively weak, but mid/upper level winds are sufficiently strong
to support a combination of multicell and occasional supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds.  One forecast
concern is that rapid storm development during the mid-afternoon may
quickly exhaust the available instability, leading to a rather short
window of opportunity for severe storms.

....AZ/NM...
Clear skies are present this morning over much of AZ/NM, where steep
low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE values are expected to
develop later today.  Most model guidance agrees that scattered
fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will form from northeast AZ
into central/northern NM, where relatively strong westerly
deep-layer flow is present.  This environment appears favorable for
a few dry microbursts, however very limited coverage and low
confidence precludes a 5% severe wind outlook.

$$
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