Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Apr 24 2023 15:40:00 ACUS02 KWNS 241730 SWODY2 SPC AC 241728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of Texas, with a risk of large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ....Southern Plains... An upper trough/low will advance from the Great Basin/Four Corners region to the southern High Plains on Tuesday. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across much of TX through the day, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley Tuesday night. Modest lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM should encourage the northward return of low-level moisture across west/central TX along/south of a surface warm front and east of a dryline. Convective development and evolution across most of the warm sector during the day still appears rather uncertain/conditional owing to a residual cap and limited daytime heating from widespread cloudiness. A better chance for the development of high-based thunderstorms is apparent across the southern High Plains as the upper trough advances south-southeastward. This activity will spread into a modestly unstable airmass, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 40s to perhaps low 50s. But, sufficiently strong deep-layer shear should support modestly organized updrafts, with an isolated threat for both hail and strong/gusty winds. With steep mid-level lapse rates and weak MUCAPE forecast, some threat for severe hail may also exist to the north of the front across parts of western into southern/central OK with elevated thunderstorms. Slightly better low-level moisture, characterized by mid/upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints, are forecast from western north TX into central/north TX by Tuesday afternoon along/south of the warm front. Any thunderstorms that can form across this region would probably become severe and pose a threat for large to very large hail and damaging winds, as greater instability and strong deep-layer shear foster organized updrafts and the potential for supercells. However, uncertainty remains rather high regarding the number of severe thunderstorms that may form owing to nebulous/modest large-scale ascent. The risk for a couple of tornadoes may also increase with this activity late Tuesday afternoon/evening as a southerly low-level jet modestly strengthens. Have expanded the Slight Risk a bit to the northwest to include more of western north TX and vicinity. But, opted to not include the TX/OK Panhandles due to continued concerns about sufficient instability to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. ....Florida... Generally zonal flow at mid/upper levels will be present over much of FL on Tuesday. Even though low-level winds will remain weak, strengthening mid/upper-level westerlies may support some updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can develop Tuesday afternoon over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along sea breeze boundaries. Strong daytime heating, combined with upper 60s surface dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft, will likely lead to MLCAPE approaching 1000-1500 J/kg across the southeastern FL Peninsula. Even though large-scale ascent will remain minimal, at least isolated thunderstorms should form, with straight hodographs favoring marginally severe hail. Occasional damaging winds may also occur. ...Gleason.. 04/24/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .