Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 07:17:00

ACUS02 KWNS 220536
SWODY2
SPC AC 220535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may produce large hail and damaging gusts
Sunday over parts of southern Texas.

....South Texas...

Mainly neutral upper height tendencies are forecast on Sunday.
However, most guidance shows a weak shortwave impulse emanating from
Mexico, migrating east across the region. This should lead to some
enhancement of mid/upper westerly flow. At the surface, a cold front
will stretch west to east across central TX and develop southward
through the afternoon/evening. Ahead of the front, upper 60s
dewpoints are forecast across south Texas. Ample heating and steep
midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate to strong destabilization.


Forecast soundings indicate at least modest capping/warm
temperatures around 700 mb. While forcing will remain subtle,
theta-e advection and frontal convergence should be sufficient for
scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Effective
shear greater than 35 kt will support organized convection, while
elongated hodographs and steep midlevel lapse rates suggest large
hail will be possible. CAMs guidance suggest thunderstorm clusters
may organize into a bow or small MCS, which may bring an attendant
risk for damaging gusts. However, midlevel capping may result in a
more conditional damaging-wind threat.

...Leitman.. 04/22/2023

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