Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 14:53:00

ACUS01 KWNS 061615
SWODY1
SPC AC 061613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail are possible
over portions of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon.

....Mid Atlantic Region...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across
PA/WV.  This boundary will move into a warm/moist air mass by early
afternoon over the Mid Atlantic region, where dewpoints the 60s and
strong heating is present.  A consensus of model guidance shows
scattered thunderstorms developing along/ahead of the front.  This
area lies along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft,
and in corridor of forecast afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg.  Parameters are sufficient to promote a risk of severe storms
capable of damaging winds and hail.  Storms should be most active in
the 21-03z period.

....TX/LA/MS...
A surface front stretches from off the TX coast into southern LA/MS.
 Ample moisture and some daytime heating along/south of the boundary
will result in scattered thunderstorms throughout the day.  By mid
afternoon, sufficient diurnal heating may result in a few robust
storms capable of gusty winds or hail.  This activity is likely to
remain rather disorganized.

...Hart/Lyons.. 04/06/2023

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