Subj : DAY2SVR: Enhanced Risks To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Sun Mar 31 2024 08:46:00 ACUS02 KWNS 310601 SWODY2 SPC AC 310600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat, with a potential for large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail will be possible across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. The greatest tornado threat is expected from southern Missouri into southern Illinois Monday evening. The severe threat is also expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley, especially during the evening and overnight period. ....Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest on Monday, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread a moist and unstable airmass across the southern Plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen in west Texas, moving eastward into Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will be in place across the eastern half of Texas, and from central and eastern Oklahoma extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon to the east of a dryline from north Texas northward to near a triple point in central Oklahoma. The airmass should be uncapped, allowing for widespread convective development from the mid to late afternoon into the evening. Thunderstorms will also likely develop in the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley during the evening, as the mid-level jet approaches the region from the southwest. Within the exit region of the mid-level jet, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to advect quickly eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings in east-central Oklahoma at 00Z/Tuesday suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates within this plume will be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, will support a large-hail threat with supercells. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense storms. The potential for very large hail may extend as far northeast as the Ozarks, as the exit region of the mid-level jet passes over the area during the early to mid evening. From southern Missouri into southern Illinois, a warm front will likely be in place. The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward along this corridor. Forecast soundings ahead of the surface low from 03Z to 06Z/Tuesday suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity will increase into 250 to 350 m2/s2 range, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This should be favorable for tornadoes with the more dominant supercells that interact with the warm front. A potential for strong tornadoes will exist. A large MCS is forecast to organize from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley during the evening. The stronger storms within this MCS will also have wind-damage potential. ....Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic. ...Broyles.. 03/31/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .