Subj : DAY1SVR: Enhanced Risk SE
To   : All
From : Dumas Walker
Date : Mon Mar 25 2024 13:00:00

ACUS01 KWNS 251607
SWODY1
SPC AC 251605

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI....

....SUMMARY...
Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through
tonight from east Texas to Alabama.

....ArkLaMiss Region...
Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  A large upper
trough is present today over the western states, with the primary
cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR.
Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much
of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories.  However,
mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern
LA.  This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample
moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening.
Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to
sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by
mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA.  These
storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening,
then into western AL after dark.  Forecast soundings suggest poor
lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft
strength and overall severe risk.  However, very strong low-level
shear will promote supercell/bowing structures.  Damaging winds and
a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this
afternoon and evening.

....IA/MO/KS...
The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track
into western IA this afternoon.  Visible satellite imagery shows a
region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading
to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE.  Most 12z CAM
guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms
late today along the front as it moves into this area.  The most
robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a
tornado for a few hours this afternoon.

...Hart/Thornton.. 03/25/2024

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