Subj : Indian-S: 1.a Overland De To : All From : Weather Alert Date : Fri Mar 11 2022 15:45:00 WTIO30 FMEE 111832 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20212022 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE) 2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 38.6 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 24H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 36H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 48H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 60H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 72H: 2022/03/14 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2022/03/15 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0 120H: 2022/03/16 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=NIL DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, GOMBE CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD TRACK WHILE WEAKENING PROGRESSIVELY. THE BANDED STRUCTURE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BUT WITH A MUCH REDUCED INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT REMAINS NOTICEABLE NEAR THE CENTER BUT MORE MARKED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART AND ON THE COAST EAST OF NAMPULA. THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS NOT EASY WITH THE ONLY HELP OF INFRARED IMAGES AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER, THIS LOCATION ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE THE MAINTENANCE OF THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE LAST AVAILABLE WIND MEASUREMENTS OF 15KT AT MORE THAN 50 KM FROM THE CENTER PLEAD FOR AVERAGE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 25KT, AT MOST. NO CHANGE ON THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, GOMBE'S TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION WITH THE DEPRESSION ADVANCING TO MORE THAN 250KM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE. DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE WESTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL FIELD SOUTH OF GOMBE WHILE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN CURVE THE TRACK OF GOMBE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE WILL RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, MODELS ARE STARTING TO DIVERGE IN TERMS OF SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND TURNING. THE RECENT RUNS SEEM TO OPT FOR A SLOWING DOWN BEFORE A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST DURING THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THE RSMC TRACK OPTS FOR THIS 4 DAY TURN SCENARIO. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE LANDMASS TO ONLY AVERAGE WINDS OF ABOUT 20KT DURING ITS TRANSIT OVER LAND. AT THE TIME OF THE EXIT AT SEA PLANNED NEXT MONDAY, THE MODELS ARE STRONGLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOST LIKELY VIEW THAT THE RSMC FOLLOWS IS AN INTENSIFICATION LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF GOMBE. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI: - GOMBE IS STILL GENERATING WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION, DEGRADED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. - ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE PROVINCES OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA, AND THEIR COASTAL BORDERS. OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD, THAT IS UNTIL THE RETURN OF GOMBE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 400 AND 600 MM MAXIMUM OVER THESE TWO PROVINCES, THAT IS TO SAY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE USUAL PRECIPITATIONS IN MARCH. -MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINS AROUND THE RESIDENTIAL CENTER OF GOMBE MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY, WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM OVER THE EPISODE. = --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .