Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2215 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 20 2025 21:18:27 ACUS11 KWNS 202118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202118=20 TXZ000-202315- Mesoscale Discussion 2215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of south-central and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 202118Z - 202315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms and a few supercells along a baroclinic zone may pose a risk for isolated hail, damaging gusts or a brief tornado across central/south-central TX into this evening. DISCUSSION...Over the course of this afternoon, scattered convection along a diffuse baroclinic zone has gradually intensified across portions of south-central TX. Clearing to the east of the ongoing storms has resulted in some diurnal warming of an unseasonably moist air mass, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). The increase in intensity is also likely tied to the arrival of stronger forcing for ascent ahead of the main upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley. Stronger flow aloft (mostly parallel to the front/outflow) will continue to support storm organization with a mixed mode of line segments and supercells. Current expectations are for the ongoing convection to gradually move eastward into the destabilized air mass across central/south-central TX with occasional intensification. With an increase in forcing and boundary-parallel flow, upscale growth appears to be the most likely result. Still, a few semi-discrete or embedded elements may intensify and pose an isolated severe risk into this evening. Hail and damaging winds would be the most likely hazards, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given modestly large low-level hodographs, especially with the more cellular elements along the southern periphery of the primary convective band.=20 Storm intensity is expected to be somewhat transient given the undercutting nature of the front and the boundary parallel flow. Still, some intensification is possible over the next few hours. Convective trends will be monitored, but given the limited spatial and temporal risk, a WW currently appears unlikely. ...Lyons/Guyer.. 11/20/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8_4UZxYXzvLle_SjixVPaQQbPISFNX9qkJuhUnj1T2ulnIissPO5WWxG_sWwElWImifMhqzUA= RusIH4oZscLC9iQjSQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29110085 30619969 31829814 32169737 32129699 31789670 30579692 29029749 27879999 28350052 29110085=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .