Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2212
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 20 2025 03:55:51

ACUS11 KWNS 200355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200355=20
TXZ000-200630-

Mesoscale Discussion 2212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Areas affected...a small part of west-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 200355Z - 200630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected through early tonight,
and isolated large hail occur.

DISCUSSION...Moderate southwest flow aloft and subtle height rises
currently exist over the southern Plains, well east of the main
upper trough. While the air mass is moist and unstable, ascent is
currently weak. The 00Z DRT sounding shows PWAT values over 1.70"
along with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, and strong upper-level winds.
However, objective analysis indicates the winds around 850 mb are
difluent, and likely resulting in downward motion. Therefore, there
appears to be minimal ascent to support more widespread storms.
However, isolated storms are already present from near the San
Angelo area southward toward the Rio Grande, and some of this
activity may strengthen at times by virtue of the moist air mass and
minimal capping. Conditionally, the environment favors hail within
the strongest cells, and coverage trends will continue to be
monitored.

...Jewell/Smith.. 11/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_9NiQY4sdhCdvwmdZncHSBtElhzP8doys8wQkcbhni5mxVH-WQZ5XMIhLoir4UCjWYFXDA6XR=
KpGIWoLT0hA4pKT8q8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29809960 29180019 28750046 28660078 29000114 29460178
            29680182 31200086 31440048 31499973 31299913 30969898
            30469913 29809960=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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