Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2211
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 20 2025 02:34:52

ACUS11 KWNS 200234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200234=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-200430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Texas into northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 200234Z - 200430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue
to pose a large hail risk through the late evening hours. Overall,
the threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, thunderstorms have gradually
increased in coverage from the I-20 corridor in west-central TX to
the OKC metro area with several supercell splits noted. While most
cells have struggled to maintain intensity, possibly owing to
weak/nebulous forcing for ascent and modest buoyancy profiles,
storms that have acquired sufficient depth to realize the strong
deep-layer shear over the region (40-50 knot 0-6 km BWD noted in
regional VWPs) have been capable of severe hail, including very
isolated significant (2 inch) hail.=20

Going forward into the late evening hours, thunderstorm coverage
should continue to slowly increase as broad-scale ascent persists
and further lifts/erodes a lingering warm layer near 700 mb. This,
coupled with increasing isentropic ascent over a warm frontal zone
situated along the I-44/I-40 corridor, should help to offset the
influence of nocturnal cooling/stabilization and maintain
thunderstorm production. The expectation is for somewhat transient
supercells capable of periodic intensification to severe limits.
Hail remains the primary hazard with hail diameters between 1 to
1.75 inches probable, though isolated instances of 2 inch hail
appear possible given favorably elongated hodographs. However, given
the dispersed and transitory nature of the storms, watch issuance is
not expected.

...Moore/Smith.. 11/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-x47Pd0qf5yAcaUPUAnaK4co-zJ4_shA54VMvhtukaqpyAX9KuqsSjh9PyzClvQI36vc3UDJ_=
bbXWBqRBdMkUpbTfjw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32400155 33000110 35269835 35859726 36069619 35979577
            35859546 35669539 35429543 35049546 34709577 34219635
            33179860 32659935 32130004 31920053 31850095 31920138
            32120156 32400155=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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