Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2207
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 18 2025 05:55:34

ACUS11 KWNS 180555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180555=20
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...Parts of MO into far northeast OK/northwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 180555Z - 180830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible overnight.
Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...A compact mid/upper-level low is moving eastward across
NE late this evening. Southeast of this low, a strong (40+ kt)
southwesterly low-level jet is currently being sampled by area VWPs.
The warm-advection regime associated with this low-level jet will
support additional rounds of elevated convection overnight from the
Ozarks into the mid MS Valley.=20

The most favorable environment for organized storms overnight will
extend from northeast OK/northwest AR into central/southern MO,
where a plume of moderate MUCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) will overlap
favorable effective shear (greater than 40+ kt). While this
environment would conditionally support elevated supercells, the
strongest large-scale ascent may tend to remain displaced to the
north and east, in closer proximity to the left-exit region of a
jetlet associated with the mid/upper-level low. This results in some
uncertainty regarding the intensity and organization of overnight
elevated convection with southward extent.=20

Generally modest midlevel lapse rates may temper hail potential to
some extent, but isolated severe hail could accompany the strongest
overnight storms. Locally gusty winds also cannot be ruled out,
especially if any sustained/organized cells or clusters can develop
with time.

...Dean/Hart.. 11/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8lPN-C0DbD7GPdbHY0AePVazV-34Wki2g-S6njyk7v4RSqEsJyvcmXf7iccbJ4DifzKlzBPwX=
9jORsPvFwNGWg8cN9I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   36799528 37269458 39759300 39669151 38959062 38639030
            38009055 37369099 36569204 35839292 35929436 36099471
            36799528=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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