Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2206
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 17 2025 23:19:02

ACUS11 KWNS 172318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172318=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into far western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172318Z - 180115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will likely increase in
coverage over the next few hours across eastern Missouri and into
far western Illinois. While most storms should remain sub-severe, a
few stronger cores my periodically be capable of producing hail near
severe limits.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery and MRMS data show a steady
uptick in new updrafts within a growing cluster of thunderstorms
just east of the Columbia, MO area. This cluster has a history of
mainly producing sub-severe hail (0.25 to 0.75 inches per mPING
reports), but occasional hail stones up to 1 inch have been
reported. The developing thunderstorms are maturing in a similar
thermodynamic and kinematic environment (characterized by modest
MUCAPE, but strong shear through the CAPE-bearing layer), and will
likely see periodic upticks in intensity that may support instances
of hail near 1 inch. As thunderstorm coverage increases, storm
interactions may act to modulate the severe threat further; however,
continued eastward advection of a plume of ~7 C/km lapse rates and
low-level moistening/isentropic ascent should continue to promote
thunderstorm development for the next few hours into far western IL.
Given the overall modest thermodynamic environment and expectation
for mainly sub-severe hail, watch issuance is not expected.

...Moore/Hart.. 11/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ygBtF81vFsc6nJAkmA-UQiEQQb9cYxDAb4rfIT5i41K81Y4Gd5YOrj2uCazl009kv3X3bCMr=
qdY0SjviWk2OWVI_8w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38229070 38179092 38199121 38289198 38349212 38529223
            38829221 39159223 39409242 39729240 39949216 40079185
            40109150 40079124 39979101 39919086 39159014 38879011
            38619024 38229070=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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