Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 17 2025 00:55:55

ACUS01 KWNS 170055
SWODY1
SPC AC 170054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
and parts of California through late tonight. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected.

....Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough passing over the Four
Corners region with a second upper wave approaching the CA coast.
Thunderstorm chances overnight will be associated with these two
features as lift ahead of the waves drives weak convection. Over the
Four Corners, weak buoyancy (sampled by the 00z ABQ sounding) will
continue to wane with thunderstorm coverage likely decreasing
through 12z across the region. Across CA, thunderstorm coverage will
likely increase through early morning as the upper wave moves
onshore, though overall buoyancy profiles will remain too limited
for robust convection. A few strikes appear possible around 12z
Monday across parts of the Texarkana region within a warm frontal
zone, but recent model consensus suggests thunderstorm coverage
should remain below 10% through the end of the forecast period.

...Moore.. 11/17/2025

$$

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