Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 15 2025 00:37:35

ACUS01 KWNS 150037
SWODY1
SPC AC 150035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

....01z Update...

Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a notable upper trough off
the southern CA Coast. This feature is forecast to drop south
overnight as 500mb speed max digs into the base of the trough west
of the northern Baja Peninsula. Net result will be weak midlevel
height falls along the southern CA Coast through sunrise. While the
associated surface front will not surge inland until later in the
day2 period, weak midlevel buoyancy is expected to develop after 06z
which may prove sufficient for a few flashes of lightning within pre
frontal warm conveyor elevated convection.

...Darrow.. 11/15/2025

$$

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