Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 14 2025 12:30:35

ACUS01 KWNS 141230
SWODY1
SPC AC 141228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A positively tilted upper trough off the West Coast will evolve into
a closed low through the period as it moves slowly southward
along/near the coast of central/southern CA. An associated surface
low should develop towards the coastal southern CA late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Instability across this area is forecast to
remain very weak, with poor lapse rates aloft present. Even so,
low-topped convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for
charge separation and lightning flashes as it moves onshore across
parts of southern CA late tonight. Low-level winds are expected to
remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with
height through mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur
in the higher terrain, the overall severe threat should be hampered
by minimal instability and weak low-level shear.

...Gleason/Broyles.. 11/14/2025

$$

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