Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 10 2025 12:43:11

ACUS01 KWNS 101243
SWODY1
SPC AC 101241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the
U.S.

....Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing currently covers much of the central and
eastern CONUS, with upper ridging across the western CONUS. The
upper troughing is forecast to spread eastward throughout the day
while trending towards a more negative tilt. The western CONUS
ridging is expected to dampen as a shortwave trough progresses
through its northern periphery along the western US/Canada border
and into the northern High Plains/northern Plains. This evolution
will result in a less amplified upper pattern characterized by
northwesterly flow aloft by early Tuesday morning.

Surface pattern will be dominated by dry and stable high pressure
associated with a continental airmass. This will preclude
thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exceptions
are across far south FL, and from far eastern MA into eastern ME.
Far south FL remains ahead of the cold front and could see isolated
thunderstorms this morning. Warm-air advection near a surface low
expected to track across far eastern MA through eastern ME could
also support a few deeper convective cores capable of lightning.

...Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/10/2025

$$

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