Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2201
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 09 2025 21:33:03

ACUS11 KWNS 092132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092132=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of south Georgia and northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092132Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and some hail risk will remain
possible late this afternoon and into the evening hours ahead of a
loosely organized band of storms near the FL/GA border.

DISCUSSION...As of 2125 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms ongoing along a diffuse
frontal zone from southwestern GA into the FL Panhandle. Over the
last hour, these storms have gradually intensified with reports of
wind damage and measured gusts. Driven primarily by surface heating
of a partially modified air mass, around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is in
place and is sufficient for maintenance of occasional stronger
updrafts as storms continue eastward. Behind the primary frontal
wind shift with veered surface flow, overlapping stronger flow aloft
is largely front parallel. This is supporting elongated (0-6km shear
50+ kt) but relatively straight hodographs as indicated by area
VADs. This should continue to favor a mixed convective mode with a
few supercell and linear structures.

Radar trends and CAM guidance suggest intermittent organization
remains possible over the next few hours as storms track eastward
along the FL/GA border. Some guidance shows additional upscale
growth is likely into early evening. The highest risk for severe
gusts and some hail is expected with any of the more established
supercells or bowing segments able to evolve. But with only modest
mid-level lapse rates and continued undercutting by the advancing
front, a broader and sustained severe risk necessitating WW issuance
appears unlikely.

...Lyons/Smith.. 11/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8fwkMkKbRVqls2CN3mZ5RCJdTWdfMBt5zkgKKpFtS6iFOZVRD2_ryYEKeMO5Ww0GQbi0a_1sZ=
rlK8cEOWKd_ALPX7R0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30378345 30648402 30968403 31218384 31498329 31648243
            31718147 31248129 30578140 30378169 30278218 30378345=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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