Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 09 2025 16:17:31

ACUS01 KWNS 091617
SWODY1
SPC AC 091615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
from Florida northeastward into the coastal Carolinas.

....FL into the coastal Carolinas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates significant amplification
of the large-scale eastern U.S. trough is occurring, and is due
primarily to a mid-level wave over the Mid South and an upstream
disturbance over the Upper Great Lakes.  A cyclone over the upper OH
Valley will migrate east towards Long Island during the period as an
attendant cold front sweeps east/southeast across the Southeast and
Gulf of America.

The airmass ahead of the front over the Carolina coastal plain into
FL will gradually warm/destabilize and yield upwards of 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE.  Forecast soundings show effective shear magnitudes
supporting organized storms.  However, tempered lapse rates (900-600
mb layer) in combination with front-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear and limited forcing for ascent ahead of the cold
front, will act to partially suppress greater storm coverage and the
overall severe risk given the magnitude of CAPE/shear.  Nonetheless,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of
the front (perhaps into one or two small clusters over the FL
Peninsula into southern GA) as it progresses across the region.  A
few damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any bowing
structures that stay ahead of the front.  Isolated hail is possible
as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity where buoyancy is
greatest.

...Smith/Wendt.. 11/09/2025

$$

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